#38 The small banks: risks and threats they are facing
Here you’ll find a complete technical setup: volume, trend, momentum, and mean reversion. Entry and exit zones are clearly defined. This aligns with or is a consequence of the macroeconomic analysis presented in the previous article.
#36 Effects on the real economy and generation of incorrect incentives by the lender of last resort.
In this article, we explore how the revelation of the Fed’s reaction function—essentially, “we saved everyone”—not only presents a moral hazard but also creates incentives for greater risk-taking, particularly by small banks. An industry that is, in fact, overcrowded.
#34 A Guide to Understanding Macro Narratives in Trading.
Here you’ll find:
The relationship between macro narratives and the markets.
The evolution of a macro narrative.
The typical price behavior at each stage of the narrative.
An intermarket analysis covering the four categories to see how we’re starting 2025.
A technical setup derived from the analysis and aligned with our macro view.
#32 Trading movements in the two year real yield.
In this article, we analyze the 2-year nominal rate from September 18, when the rate cuts began, to December 18, which marks the most recent cut to date. We break down the nominal rate to understand what happened with its components: the real rate, inflation expectations, and the term premium. The conclusions are compelling.
#30 10-2 Year Yield Spread: Impact on Bonds, Rates and Trades.
In this article, we delve into the 10-2 year spread. We explore how it works, why it’s a leading indicator, and how it relates to other indicators derived from the yield curve.
#29 10-Year Real Rate Trading: A Complete Guide
In this article, we break down the components of the 10-year real rate. We understand what has been driving its movements since September up to now. We study the evolution of the term premium and the intermarket repercussions it generates.
#27 Two Year Real Rate Trends and Analysis
We broke down the 2-year real rates to understand their evolution. We used the nominal rates, inflation expectations, and the 2-year term premium. The conclusions are clear.
#19 Investment Opportunities by Sector Valuations.
In this article, we analyze the relative valuations of sectors, their sensitivity to the economic cycle, and their current valuations to identify opportunities.
#8 Summary of Macro Fundamentals
Summary of Macro Fundamentals
#6 Current Stage of the U.S. Economic Cycle
Macro Arguments for a near recession in the american economy aprox jun-jul 2025