Intermarket Analysis Throught Macro and Technical Methods
Reports to measure and quantify the labor market.
Labor market Monthly reports, sources, data collection, and information loading by Government Agencies.
Labor market: Public Reports
These are the 10 most well-known reports conducted by the public sector. The ones highlighted in blue (including the Non-Farm Payroll, historically the most important of all, published on the first Friday of each month) rely on the C.E.S (Current Employment Statistics) and C.P.S (Current Population Survey) surveys. Both massive surveys- MASSIVE
These are the two main sources of information, one focused on businesses and the other on households. Errors in the collection of these surveys affect six of the 10 most important public labor reports.
Therefore, of the information generated by public agencies, we are left with the **Jobless-Continuing Claims**. These reports are the most up-to-date and have no errors in their data collection.
Labor Market: Monthly Reports, Sources, and Data Collection by Private Entities.
Unlike public reports, here the sources of information vary with each report. In blue, we highlight the ones we consider most important.
A.D.P report
Labor Market: A.D.P as a Data Source
ADP (Automatic Data Processing) is a global leader in payroll, HR, and outsourcing solutions. Founded in 1949, it serves over 920,000 businesses with services like payroll processing, benefits, compliance, and data analytics. ADP is also known for its National Employment Report, which tracks U.S. private-sector jobs through data from over 500,000 companies and their payrolls registered in the U.S. Its mission is to simplify and optimize workforce management for companies of all sizes.
Indeed data source
Labor Market: Indeed as a Data Source
Indeed is one of the largest job platforms in the U.S. It gathers data from thousands of job postings and applications to analyze hiring trends, talent demand, and salary evolution. Through its Hiring Lab, it produces real-time reports on the labor market, using aggregated data to track hiring activity and employment shifts by sector.
Current Employment Statistics (C.E.S)
Sample Selection:
- Sample: Approximately 145,000 businesses and government agencies, representing around 697,000 worksites.
- Selection Criteria: The sample is selected to represent all industries and business sizes.
Data Collection:
- Questionnaire Distribution:
- Businesses receive electronic or paper forms.
- Most responses are submitted electronically through a secure system.
- Responses:
- Businesses complete the questionnaire with data on employment, hours worked, and wages.
- If paper forms are used, they are returned by mail.
Data Loading:
- Electronic Entry:
- Electronic responses are automatically uploaded to the BLS database.
- Manual Entry:
- If paper responses are received, BLS staff manually digitize them.
Validation and Processing:
- Automatic Validation:
- Data is automatically validated to detect errors or inconsistencies.
- Manual Review:
- BLS analysts review samples of data to ensure algorithms are functioning correctly.
- Seasonal Adjustments:
- Economists apply seasonal adjustments to account for predictable patterns (e.g., temporary holiday hiring).
This survey forms the basis for reports like the Non-Farm Payroll, a star and fundamental report that historically set market trends.
However, this report still relies on human data entry, and BLS economists make seasonal adjustments to the data. Revisions, which have always existed, are due to a variety of factors, including the gradual entry of additional data.
These surveys are highly exposed to errors, and because they are enormous, the errors can also be significant. This applies to both the C.E.S and C.P.S surveys. The surveys are so massive, that human intervention in recollection, data entry and interpretation can cause huge deviations. That’s why we stop using them.
The ISM reports have a much more efficient data collection and loading process. By working with a sample of 400 companies or purchasing managers and collecting data more effectively, they represent the sample much better than the previous surveys. The problem with this survey is that it is exposed to the subjectivity of the purchasing manager, and the responses to the survey have only three options: better, equal, or worse.
Well, that’s all for today. As always, the technical setups we’re studying are in the blog article. For the 10,000th time, this is what we’re seeing and sharing for marketing purposes. THESE ARE NOT TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS.