We analyze the evolution of auto credit and vehicle sales, and how short-term interest rates directly impact demand. We place today’s sales levels in historical context and examine five vehicles within the auto retail sector.
The real economy and the context we are trading today.The VIX: a historical perspective on current levels, with a specific comparison to the Dot-com and GFC recessions.The real economy and divergent reactions within the financial and homebuilding sectors.
Intermarket flows: the same winners remain in control.Intra-market analysis: segmentation to
We break down retail sales and why Consumer Discretionary is completely detached from reality. We picked three vehicles to go deeper, while tracking how risk-takers positioned themselves this week.
A historical perspective on unemployment—its levels and the current trend relative to past cycles. Its connection to sectors, and how sector leadership evolves as the cycle matures. We then zoom in on two sectors in search of vehicles to trade.
QE and inflation is one of the most popular debates in macro—and one of the most misunderstood. In plain language, QE is the Fed buying bonds and paying with bank reserves: they hit “enter” and reserves show up on a bank’s account at the Fed. The real question isn’t whether
The Fed meeting is acting as the catalyst. Here, I read the messages the S&P 500 is sending across different timeframes. Too clear not to hear.