We break down retail sales and why Consumer Discretionary is completely detached from reality. We picked three vehicles to go deeper, while tracking how risk-takers positioned themselves this week.
A historical perspective on unemployment—its levels and the current trend relative to past cycles. Its connection to sectors, and how sector leadership evolves as the cycle matures. We then zoom in on two sectors in search of vehicles to trade.
QE and inflation is one of the most popular debates in macro—and one of the most misunderstood. In plain language, QE is the Fed buying bonds and paying with bank reserves: they hit “enter” and reserves show up on a bank’s account at the Fed. The real question isn’t whether
The Fed meeting is acting as the catalyst. Here, I read the messages the S&P 500 is sending across different timeframes. Too clear not to hear.
We analyze the end of QT and the rate cut scheduled for next December 10. Which mechanisms must reactivate for it to transmit into the real economy, and the scenarios ahead. Why we believe we could see a “buy the rumor, sell the news” into Wednesday, and the three stages
We analyze QT from different time perspectives. We dive into the concept of liquidity as applied to different sectors. What it can solve and what it cannot. A complete intermarket capital flow tracking, sub-categorized to refine the analysis. We look at the weekly positions of risk takers.