#70 The Residential Market
We seek to understand the relationship between the new and the existing home market—the different flows and inventories that shape both. We analyze how imbalances in one market affect the other.
#68 Spot federal rate spread vs. PCE inflation rate
We analyzed the intermarket capital flows that took place in the week of September 17, following the rate cut. We looked at the effects they generated, where they occurred, and with what volume. We searched and found where the volume moved that week.
#67 Labor Market and Consumption
The connection between consumption and the market may seem direct. It isn’t quite so since the state has also intervened in this market. Here we explain the market’s causalities. We break down Nonfarm Payroll to show why it fails as a true measure of employment, and finally, we lay out a concrete technical setup.
#58 Causality between the yield curve and leading indicators.
We covered two different interpretations of the yield curve: the inversion and the first Fed rate cut. We analyzed the last four recessions and measured the lead times to estimate the window until the next recession.
#57 A deep dive into the current state of the dollar
This article explores the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency—its role as a safe haven, as a reserve held by both private investors and central banks, and as the dominant currency in global trade.
#49 A volume-based system to trade macro narratives
A deep dive into the different ways volume can be read We’re in a market where macro reports have taken a back seat— daily news is driving prices. It’s a time for weekly and daily trading, and in this context, it’s technical analysis that guides us. We already know we’re in a volatile price environment, […]
#33 Technical Setup for shorting Tecs
This chart caught our attention due to the divergence we observed in volume. It aligns with our macro view, and we have chosen it as the vehicle for an aggressively defensive trade, targeting what we believe to be a point of weakness: the S&P 500.
#31 Trading sectors in a bubble environment
In this article, you’ll find:
The relationship between momentum and mean reversion.
The importance of tracking momentum at extreme or overextended price levels.
Relative ratios between sectors.
Where we see opportunities and where we don’t.
A general view for portfolio positioning today.
#28-C Point and Figure Basics: Charting Objectives Explained
In this article, you’ll find a detailed description of the Point and Figure charting method. Its primary function (trend identification across different time frames), the method for plotting it, its pros and cons, and an example to clarify its use. I hope you enjoy it and find it useful, as it’s a fundamental tool in technical analysi
