#52 Micro and Small Caps: valuations across and within sectors
In this article, we analyze the capital rotation into defensive sectors of the economy, while also examining intra-sector valuations between small-cap and large-cap stocks.
#51 Reading the bond market and analyzing interest rate components
Reading the Bond Market: Breaking Down the Components of Nominal Rates to Understand Bond Market Dynamics and Decipher Its Signals
#48 Overshooting, Economic Fluctuations and trading opportunities.
How do you trade in this kind of environment? What we’re seeing now falls under what we know as herd behavior. And contrary to what many believe, this type of behavior follows identifiable patterns—and can be highly profitable. These are the rules of the game now. We know how the opposing team plays—now it’s just […]
#46 Interest rates: The heart of the financial system.
Understanding the directional effects they create is essential for making sense of the markets. We can think of global capital as a fixed amount of capital—what changes are the stops where it temporarily settles. Nothing in the markets moves in isolation; everything is interconnected through interest rates. Components of an interest rate: ꭆ(n)= ꭇeal ꭇate(n) […]
#43 Observer: The Labor Market
Intermarket Analysis Throught Macro and Technical Methods #43 Observer: The Labor Market The labor market has very particular characteristics in terms of its measurement: It has qualitative nuances, such as wages and productivity. It has quantitative nuances, which are complex to measure. The elasticities of this production factor as an adjustment variable vary from industry to industry. […]
#43 Explorer: The Labor Market
Intermarket Analysis Throught Macro and Technical Methods #43 Explorer Subscripcion: The Labor Market The labor market has very particular characteristics in terms of its measurement: It has qualitative nuances, such as wages and productivity. It has quantitative nuances, which are complex to measure. The elasticities of this production factor as an adjustment variable vary from industry to […]
#43 Frontliner: The Labor Market
An economy that cannot resolve its unemployment claims is in an unsustainable situation. Unemployment will end up rising—or worse, rising in the public sector. There are prices out of equilibrium in the American economy that need to adjust to make it sustainable again.
#41a) Observing reality through the prisms of intermarket, technical and macroeconomic analysis.
Here you’ll find:
The reaction of Amazon, NVIDIA, and Google to their earnings announcements.
Why the results weren’t as expected and the similarity in the price reactions of the 3.
The clearest message from the intermarket: gold in full stage 1 of price action.
Macro analysis of the American real estate sector.
Analysis of the sector’s ecosystem: Prices, Rates, Inventory, and outlook.
Various setups for trading with different technical strategies, in this case, in the tech sector. These are published in the next blog article. #42
#38 The small banks: risks and threats they are facing
Here you’ll find a complete technical setup: volume, trend, momentum, and mean reversion. Entry and exit zones are clearly defined. This aligns with or is a consequence of the macroeconomic analysis presented in the previous article.
#36 Effects on the real economy and generation of incorrect incentives by the lender of last resort.
In this article, we explore how the revelation of the Fed’s reaction function—essentially, “we saved everyone”—not only presents a moral hazard but also creates incentives for greater risk-taking, particularly by small banks. An industry that is, in fact, overcrowded.