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Methodology

Methodology

How we read the chain from rates to vehicle — statistics first, technicals for timing, macro for context.

01Rates & transmission
02Statistical deviation
03Technical timing
04Macro context
05Vehicle selection
01 — The Framework

Rates drive the chain

Intermarket analysis studies the interaction between interest rates and the cascading moves they generate across markets.

That impact shows up first in bonds — and from there, transmits sequentially into every other asset class: equities, currencies, and commodities.

This is the chain we track.

Intermarket Framework RATES BONDS Moves first EQUITIES Follows bonds CURRENCIES Rate differentials COMMODITIES Moves last ① FIRST ② SECOND ③ THIRD ④ FOURTH Causal transmission Correlation
02 — The Instrument

Where we start: statistics

Our method starts in statistics. We compare each asset's current behavior against the average of its own history, normalizing every data point onto a common scale.

The focus is on capital flows — measured through dollar value. Every asset class on the same axis. Direct comparison.

The Z-Scores tell us where an asset is deviating from itself. And what that deviation signals.

Z_RET
Return deviation
Current return vs. the asset's own historical average
Z_DV
Dollar volume deviation
Capital flow before price confirms it
Z_VOL
Volume deviation
Participation shifting ahead of direction
Z_VOLAT
Volatility deviation
Regime change before price confirms it
Normalized against each asset's own history
03 — Timing Layer

Technicals: when to act

We use technical analysis as our timing methodology — it tells us when and how to act on what the statistics and macro context are already showing.

Price is shaped by three simultaneous forces: Trend, Momentum, and Mean Reversion. We read all three using the full technical toolkit.

A setup is only valid when the technical layer confirms what the Z-Scores are already showing.

Technical Analysis Layer PRICE Three forces MOMENTUM Speed + direction TREND Direction MEAN REV. Equilibrium TIME Oscillators Open interest Volume profile Indicators Chartism Candle patterns Fibos Elliott Volume Mean rev. Confirms Z-Score signals — timing and entry
04 — Context Layer

Macro: where we stand in the cycle

Macro gives us the context. Capital flows tell us which stage of the macro cycle we're in — and which stage is most likely next.

That rotation replicates across every asset category, shaped by Credit Environment, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and the Business Ecosystem. The Z-Scores confirm when the rotation is already underway.

Macro Analysis — Economic and Stock Market Cycles ECONOMIC CYCLE EXPANSION Equities lead SLOWDOWN Commodities lead RECESSION Bonds lead RECOVERY Bonds → early equities CYCLE STAGE FISCAL POLICY CREDIT ENVIRONMENT STOCK MARKET CYCLE 11 SECTORS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 BUSINESS ECOSYSTEM MONETARY POLICY 1 Non-cyclical consumption 2 Cyclical consumption 3 Health care 4 Financial 9 Energy 10 Services 11 Precious metals 6 Basic industry 7 Capital goods 5 Technological 8 Transport
05 — Asset Selection

In the zone

Everything consolidates in the search for a vehicle to express the thesis.

Market → Sub Category → Vehicle. A setup only qualifies when all three layers converge simultaneously.

Most setups fail because traders skip steps. We don't.

In The Zone — Asset selection IN THE ZONE MARKET Z-Score anomaly SUB CATEGORY Sector / geography VEHICLE ETF / Future / Option
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before price confirms it

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