#77 The Macro Split: Why Recession and Stagflation Trade Nothing Alike
Recession and Stagflation require distinct trading methods. The recession methodology is clear; however, Stagflation is far more confusing. Here are our options for trading both stages.
#76 MBS-The Hidden Circuit Behind the Housing Market — and Burry’s Technical Beauty
MBS, or mortgage-backed securities, are the currency banks use to access the Fed’s liquidity window. The Fed takes them at par, automatically providing liquidity while simultaneously boosting the construction market through the creation of new loans.
#75 SOFR rate spikes — normal plumbing or something more?
SOFR rate spikes are always a warning that something’s happening in the monetary plumbing. Here we explain what it is. When to worry — and when not to.
#73 The Real Economy and the Markets
The flip side of the fiscal deficit is a constant injection of liquidity into the system. It’s the fiscal leg of monetary policy—and it depends on the administration in charge.
#71 Dot-com and G.F.C: similarities and differences with the current situation
The current situation: Similarities and differences with the GFC and the Dot-Com crisis.
#70 The Residential Market
We seek to understand the relationship between the new and the existing home market—the different flows and inventories that shape both. We analyze how imbalances in one market affect the other.
#68 Spot federal rate spread vs. PCE inflation rate
We analyzed the intermarket capital flows that took place in the week of September 17, following the rate cut. We looked at the effects they generated, where they occurred, and with what volume. We searched and found where the volume moved that week.
#67 Labor Market and Consumption
The connection between consumption and the market may seem direct. It isn’t quite so since the state has also intervened in this market. Here we explain the market’s causalities. We break down Nonfarm Payroll to show why it fails as a true measure of employment, and finally, we lay out a concrete technical setup.
#66 Banking System and Credit
To analyze which banks are most exposed to consumer credit delinquencies, the most useful approach is to break down their business units and assess the weight of consumer lending within each balance sheet. Here’s a summary bank by bank (based on 10-Ks, Fed H.8 data, and 2023–2024 reports):
#65 Jackson Hole Reactions, Rate Cuts and the Intermarket
We analyze the intermarket moves that took place after the Jackson Hole conference. We seek to identify where capital flowed.