QE and inflation is one of the most popular debates in macro—and one of the most misunderstood. In plain language, QE is the Fed buying bonds and paying with bank reserves: they hit “enter” and reserves show up on a bank’s account at the Fed. The real question isn’t whether
The Fed meeting is acting as the catalyst. Here, I read the messages the S&P 500 is sending across different timeframes. Too clear not to hear.
We analyze the end of QT and the rate cut scheduled for next December 10. Which mechanisms must reactivate for it to transmit into the real economy, and the scenarios ahead. Why we believe we could see a “buy the rumor, sell the news” into Wednesday, and the three stages
We analyze QT from different time perspectives. We dive into the concept of liquidity as applied to different sectors. What it can solve and what it cannot. A complete intermarket capital flow tracking, sub-categorized to refine the analysis. We look at the weekly positions of risk takers.
Equity assets Across the world, they’ve gone into hibernation. There isn’t a single asset class that has received inflows as a sign of confidence ahead of the upcoming rate cut. Volume — the only real confirmation — signals paralysis. And in that context, returns are irrelevant. Equity Assets: To kick
We describe how a stagflationary process hits different sectors at different moments. With two charts, we show an economy in stagflation. We also break down the SP500 and the six largest fast-food chains from a purely technical perspective.